Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Racial divide in Mississippi?


Okay, yesterday Obama won the Mississippi primary with 61% of the vote. The one thing that bugged me about the punditry was the notion that he only did so well because there are so many black people in Mississippi, getting 70% of the black vote. Here's the page on that from the exit poll. The idea is that he can't "reach across the racial divide."
Yeah, right. Here in Maine, which is whiter than Obama's teeth, he won the caucus 60/40. 'Nuff said? Here's another way of looking at it. Go back to that page, and see how the white lady did reaching across the racial divide. Clinton won 8% of the black vote. Obama won 26% of the white vote. Check my math, but that sounds like Senator Obama, yesterday, performed across the racial divide 325% better than Senator Clinton. And that's without going negative.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Clinton, Obama, and Mixed Fruit

How about those Texans? Media reported a Clinton win, based on the primary, which went for her by a close margin, but the cold molasses that passes for an information stream this week projects Obama as a big winner in the caucues, which are the second part of the Texas two-step. According to NPR, he is likely to net three delegates from Texas when all is said and done.

Here's my only other insight today, and for this, put on your mathematical thinking cap. I saw a figure showing the "popular vote" between the two having only a three thousand vote difference in the race taken as a whole, thus far. If that number was a combination of caucus and primary results, it's an apples/grapes problem.
Obama does better in caucus states, Clinton does better in primary states.
Good so far? Think of an apple as a caucus vote. It's bigger, and while being only one piece of food, is MORE food. Think of a grape as a primary vote. While being one piece of food, it is LESS food than an apple.
Still good? If Obama has ten apples and five grapes on his table, and Clinton has has twelve grapes and four apples on her table, she has more pieces of food, but less food. Of course, they're both out in the yard picking fruit, so who knows?
The upshot is that any reporting of a so-called popular vote in the primary is misleading, seeming to indicate a level of support for Clinton that isn't really there.
Last thought for the day: when did she stop being Hillary Rodham Clinton? Did it just occur to her one day that it might finally be okay to be closely associated with her husband again?

Andy